Rookie Drafting Before the NFL Draft
If you're active on Twitter, over the past couple of weeks, you might have noticed some of the top analysts in the fantasy space talking about rookie drafts. I'm not just talking about mock drafts or rankings, but actual rookie drafts...in March and April. A growing number of dynasty leagues are opting to hold their league's annual dynasty rookie draft BEFORE the NFL Draft. I've seen friends and analysts like Matthew Berry, Curtis Patrick and Scott Barrett discuss their recent rookie drafts on Twitter and reached out to find out why they would stray from the norm in this way.
The consistent answer was a simple one, and something that is often lost as we try to build bigger and better leagues. Why draft before the NFL Draft? Because it's fun! Everyone I exchanged messages with mentioned just how much fun it brings to the already sizable challenge of figuring out the incoming rookie class.
If you're a devy player, you can likely relate to the next positive of drafting ahead of the NFL Draft, which also ties into the fun. As if the NFL Draft could get any better for die-hard dynasty players, having a rookie on your roster already and rooting for a desirable draft capital and landing spots ups the intensity.
Of course, there is some obvious risk in selecting players before the NFL really tells us what they think of them. It seems that every year, a player falls much further than expected, bleeding dynasty value along the way. We all remember Equanimeous St. Brown and Hakeem Butler. In rookie drafts held before the NFL Draft, these players were certainly top-12 picks.
This risk was actually mentioned as a positive though. If a dynasty player has done their homework, either through film watching or analytical study, there are edges to be had. As is the case in many league, dynasty managers who might not be as confident in their scouting skills would be even more likely to make a trade. Increased trade activity is always a good thing for an active dynasty league.
Now, drafting before the NFL Draft is not always a good idea. Most of the ideas mentioned above were shared by Curtis and Scott. Matthew is not as sold.
Matthew went on to explain that he thinks the process actually devalues rookie picks because we are missing such a huge piece of the players’ ultimate value, which comes via draft capital and landing spot. Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be a good example of this. One year ago, he was chosen as the 1.10 pick prior to the Draft. We know he would ultimately ascend to the top of many rookie boards following his selection in the First Round by the Chiefs. That’s great news for anyone who took a chance on CEH, but let’s be honest, there is a lot of luck involved.
Ultimately, If this sounds like an interesting value add for your dynasty, be sure to consider the manager makeup of your league. You'll need a year-round active group of sharp players. As with any major change, make sure there is buy in and understanding across the group of league managers before taking the leap.
#SFB11 update: We are now under three months from the kickoff of the 2021 Scott Fish Bowl. Look for more information about the league and some unique twists coming soon. Until then, congratulations to our newest entrant into the league, Earl English.